Model-driven trade values for Sleeper Lock-In fantasy basketball. Ridge regression trained on 2025β26 NBA stats, adjusted for position scarcity, player archetype, and Lock-In upside.
| # | Player | Pos | Archetype | FPTS | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
NJ
Nikola JokiΔ
DEN
|
C | Stat Stuffer | 39.0 | 27.9 | 12.8 | 10.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| 2 |
LD
Luka DonΔiΔ
LAL
|
PG | Stat Stuffer | 35.0 | 33.7 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | |
| 3 |
VW
Victor Wembanyama
SAS
|
C | Versatile Big | 33.1 | 24.2 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 3.1 | |
| 4 |
SG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC
|
PG | Stat Stuffer | 29.9 | 31.4 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| 5 |
GA
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIL
|
PF | Stat Stuffer | 29.2 | 27.6 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | |
| 6 |
CC
Cade Cunningham
DET
|
PG | Stat Stuffer | 29.9 | 24.5 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | |
| 7 |
TM
Tyrese Maxey
PHI
|
PG | Stat Stuffer | 30.1 | 29.0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | |
| 8 |
JJ
Jalen Johnson
ATL
|
SF | Stat Stuffer | 30.9 | 22.9 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | |
| 9 |
AΕ
Alperen ΕengΓΌn
HOU
|
C | Stat Stuffer | 26.9 | 20.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| 10 |
JE
Joel Embiid
PHI
|
C | Versatile Big | 26.0 | 26.9 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | |
| 11 |
JH
James Harden
CLE
|
PG | Playmaker | 26.1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | |
| 12 |
JM
Jamal Murray
DEN
|
PG | Playmaker | 26.1 | 25.5 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | |
| 13 |
BA
Bam Adebayo
MIA
|
C | Versatile Big | 25.9 | 20.2 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | |
| 14 |
AD
Anthony Davis
WAS
|
PF | Versatile Big | 27.9 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | |
| 15 |
KT
Karl-Anthony Towns
NYK
|
C | Rebounder | 26.1 | 20.1 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Component | Description | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Base Model | Ridge regression, FPTS/game target, 2025β26 data | 0β100 raw score |
| Position Scarcity | Centers and PGs get a premium, SGs discounted | C +8%, SG β3% |
| Archetype Bonus | Stat Stuffers, Versatile Bigs, Lockdowns rewarded for Lock-In upside | Up to +12% |
| Volatility Proxy | USG Γ PTS / TS% β high usage boom players get premium | Up to +12% |
| Roster Bonus | Open roster spot on smaller side β flat 22 pts per spot | +22 pts/spot |
| Value Falloff | Slot weights: P1=100%, P2=85%, P3=72%, P4=60%... | Steep falloff |
| Stud Bonus | Top player only β exponential based on gap above league avg | Scales with dominance |
| Elite Tier (top 1.5%) | True franchise cornerstones. Jokic-tier. Exponentially harder to trade for. | +15 flat + exp bonus |